stock market sharing (October 2008)

After all these droppings( I know...I am sad too), you can see cash flow maintainability is very very important. ( I was going to sell all JASO but realize it's a good example to show everyone cash flow maintainability is important)
1. JASO@ 10.3, JASO @ 6.7, -> JASO @3.7 , no cash flow left
2. YGE @4.95 , YGE sell @ 5.3 -> YGE @ 3.7, 100 % cash flow left + $100 earning

In Bear market, maintaining cash flow is important because I can keep increasing more stock position in the future. and earn more for next bull market while keeping my profit. In this case, stock chart, currency flow, Oil market flow becomes a factor to consider to see when to buy and when to sell.

Okay, that's the end of looking at history of investment. Now back to stock :)

Today is Oct 26. So what will happen in the future?
Some facts we need to know from October:
1. US dollar inflation
2. JPN dollar to US : 94: 1
3. Oil barrel -> US %65
4. Gold -> $730
5. Dow support line at 7800

you can see all the markets are down. That's because of de-leveraging. It's very horrible because no matter how the company value is, the price still has to drop. In order to compete with it, put option on high debt companies can be used for profit. Buy and sell will require lots of skills.

As all countries reduce their interest rate, the market should still keep going down. The bear market is not ended until the interest rate decreasing period slowed down. Holding Euro, AUS, newzealand, Cdn are very bad as money flows back to US. Hedge fund cut their investment and thus JPN keep going up. Now carry trade doesn't happen anymore because people can borrow money from US now instead of JPN. It's understandable that US will maintain the interest rate for half a year to make the economy recover.

Gold's bull market is ended for now because US dollar has built a confidence with people now. (still keep going up in bear market). I'd say ( good job, US FED >_<). The reason of buying Gold is only when US dollars starts to lose its confidence. However, this will not be happened now. But well, next bull market, US dollar may lose its condifence :). Depends how Asia RMB can freely trade or not.

Asia RMB is a long term investment and stable investment. US gov't really wants RMB to go up and up. So if you want stable non-risky income, buy RMB's bond is a better choice compared to US bond. (however, most US investors in the world don't realize it and still buying US bond. they are stilll keeping tricked by US gov't, coz US bond can't compete with inflation).

Dow support line is @ 7800 and a big plunge is needed to break this support line. If it's not broken next week the end of October, you can expect market will go up in Nov and Dec.

Here are some questions we need to answer at this point.

1. When is de-leveraging ended?
2. Any signals if the crisis is ended?
3. When is the end of bear market?
4. What do we need to prepare for next bull market?

1. De-leveraging is still going and is expected to continue. It's an effect of credit crunch. So you have to see when the credit crunch is ended.

2. The crisis is from subprime mortgage to credit crunch and lead to a bunch of problems.
So signals like: final bomb (credit card problem) exploded and solved, your consuming power is hugely affected. US starts to increase the interest rate because economy is stable. These are the signals you can look for when crisis is ended. However it doesn't mean bear market is ended. It just means the market is trying to recover itself. Usually this is the time for long term investors to come in and holds for maybe 1-5 years. (my guess is around mid 2009)

3. If you see US dollar depreciate again, that's the end of bear market. It will be the time for mid-term and short term investment to come in. (my guess is around Dec 2010)

4. Find the bubbles for next bull market, it can be bio-medical, alternative energy, environment saving companies.....Realize that???...These bubbles are what Buffett is buying these days, (bio-medical -> SNY, GSK), Alternative energy -> GE, chinese companies that produces battery, (I also read a news that buffett is interested in solarworld AG, environement saving companies ->BNI (less car, more railway), IR (energy-saving companies)). Also, after this financial crisis, the remaining banks will be getting stronger and stronger. That's why Buffett still has Wells fargo, Bank of America and Goldman Sach. All about market share in the future. Others like KO, YUM, MCD, are still good for investment as they have good china market. (The fact that China and India have billions of people is still existed. so these good managed US companies that have good asia exposure are good for investment)

side note: To be a professional investor, An example like Buffett is good to learn from. (but just trust all of what he says. a self-analysis is still needed)

OKAY, Sharing up to now.
However, just one last point to note, don't think solar stocks are at the bottom. Be skeptical.

sell 500 YGE @ 5.3

earn gradually , 1 time after 1 time

buy below 4.95 again
keep earn little by little to increase cash flow

add 500 YGE @ 4.95

time for them to cover the short sell
good luck to everyone...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=yge

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=jaso

buy JASO@ 6.7

500 stocks

reason:
1. rsi <30,
2. after panic sell
3. next year revenue is the same as the market cap
4. holding enough cash

some thoughts to pass the darkest moment

clear high P/E stocks: FSLR drops to bring down the whole solar market

in this sale, STP is the strongest....it's seen that STP is the king....

again...be careful of bank run in US or Europe or even in the world (Australia)

keep your deposit in big banks, e.g HSBC, Wells fargo, STD, BAC..

wait longer to buy solar stocks...
wrong decision to buy JASO @ 10.2, will consider buying JASO below 7.2

buy@ JASO 10.3

portfilio

$6000
- JASO @12.4 300shares ( Sept)
+ JASO @ 13.2 300 shares (Sept)
- $58 transaction fee
- JASO @ 10.3 300 shares (Sept 30th)

waiting for AMAT to go below 14.8 again and YGE to go below 10 again

prepare to buy YGE and AMAT

since the bailout plan fails, it's not good to start buying today.
Also since the bailout plan fails, even more banks are not gonna survive.
This is not the worst news. Stay in line and look for opportunity.

The worst news this time should be bankruns everywhere in US or even the world.
now just Fortis ans Wachovia...

Please keep your money in some good banks, such as some china bank, HSBC, STD, Wells Fargo, etc.

Portfilio still 100 % cash.

Yingli Green Energy will Supply PV Modules to Largest University Campus Solar Energy Facility in the United States

BAODING, China, September 24, 2008 – Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited (NYSE: YGE) ("Yingli Green Energy" or "the Company"), one of the world's leading vertically integrated photovoltaic ("PV") product manufacturers, today announced that it has entered into a sales contract with SunDurance Energy, LLC ("SunDurance"), which develops, designs and builds large-scale solar energy facilities for private and public entities in the United States. Pursuant to this agreement, Yingli Green Energy has agreed to supply an aggregate of 1.4 MW of PV modules to SunDurance from December 2008 to January 2009, which will be used for a solar power plant under construction on the Livingston Campus of Rutgers University. The $10 million solar farm project will be financed by Rutgers University and the Clean Energy Program of the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities.

According to Rutgers University, this project will be largest campus solar energy facility in the United States, and is expected to generate approximately 10 percent of the electrical demand for the Livingston Campus while reducing the university's carbon dioxide emissions by more than 1,200 tons per year.

"We are very pleased to be working with Yingli Green Energy on the Rutgers University project," said Al Bucknam, Chief Executive Officer of SunDurance Energy. "Yingli's products meet the demanding performance requirements of this project and the module design enables a more space-efficient layout."

"We are pleased to work with SunDurance and to be a part of Rutgers University's efforts to bring environmentally sound practices to higher education," commented Mr. Robert Petrina, the Business Development Manager of Yingli Green Energy. "I believe solar power will play an increasingly important role in the energy generation mix of the United States, and this project and our relationship with SunDurance highlights our commitment to the U.S. market."

Comment:

yge has started the USA market already. It's a big milestone.I increase the buy to $12.5. Since the tax credit lasts for 8 years. it is for sure thatSolar stock will be doubled by 10 every 3-4 years

Spain to ease proposed cut on solar subsidy cap

MADRID, Sept 23(Reuters) - Spain has decided to ease proposed dramatic cuts in agenerous subsidy scheme to solar power producers in one of the world's hottest markets, Energy Secretary Pedro Marin said on Tuesday.
Marin told reporters that the proposed limit on new solar power panels entitled to subsidies in 2009 will be 500 megawatts, which compares to an earlier draft proposal to set the cap at 300 MW.
'We have approved an additional 200 MW for ground based installations to soften the change,' Marin said.
The government's proposed cap on what has been lucrative state aid for solar energy firms would still be less than half this year's cap of1,200 MW.
Solar energy association ASIF has said that the 500 MW cap proposed will only subsidize projects already in development, but not encourage any new solar power installations in 2009.
(Reporting by Martin Roberts, writing by Sarah Morris) Keywords: SPAIN SOLAR/

link: http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslim ... /23/afx5458917.html

comment: For the solar companies who are already in Spanish market, this is the good news.
among all of them,
Related Stocks: Applied Materials Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq: ENER), First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR), Hoku Scientific, Inc. (Nasdaq: HOKU), SunPower Corporation (Nasdaq: SPWR), MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE).

Based on stock price values and a bunch of short term signals, I will add AMAT & YGE soon to my portfolio. My Desired price : AMAT-> below 14.8, YGE-> below 11.5 for 2-months goals, AMAT -> 18, YGE -> 13.8

portfilio - JASO will sell if it reaches 13.2

Reason: the balance sheet status has changed and it's difficult to predict anymore now.

US problem cannot be solved by gov't policy, i think most of the I-bank will be finished. economy recession will cause oil to drop and alternative energy market cannot expand for a while. the timing to buy will be after US election, and JASO will not be considered until more clarification with lehman deal.