stock market sharing (October 2008)

After all these droppings( I know...I am sad too), you can see cash flow maintainability is very very important. ( I was going to sell all JASO but realize it's a good example to show everyone cash flow maintainability is important)
1. JASO@ 10.3, JASO @ 6.7, -> JASO @3.7 , no cash flow left
2. YGE @4.95 , YGE sell @ 5.3 -> YGE @ 3.7, 100 % cash flow left + $100 earning

In Bear market, maintaining cash flow is important because I can keep increasing more stock position in the future. and earn more for next bull market while keeping my profit. In this case, stock chart, currency flow, Oil market flow becomes a factor to consider to see when to buy and when to sell.

Okay, that's the end of looking at history of investment. Now back to stock :)

Today is Oct 26. So what will happen in the future?
Some facts we need to know from October:
1. US dollar inflation
2. JPN dollar to US : 94: 1
3. Oil barrel -> US %65
4. Gold -> $730
5. Dow support line at 7800

you can see all the markets are down. That's because of de-leveraging. It's very horrible because no matter how the company value is, the price still has to drop. In order to compete with it, put option on high debt companies can be used for profit. Buy and sell will require lots of skills.

As all countries reduce their interest rate, the market should still keep going down. The bear market is not ended until the interest rate decreasing period slowed down. Holding Euro, AUS, newzealand, Cdn are very bad as money flows back to US. Hedge fund cut their investment and thus JPN keep going up. Now carry trade doesn't happen anymore because people can borrow money from US now instead of JPN. It's understandable that US will maintain the interest rate for half a year to make the economy recover.

Gold's bull market is ended for now because US dollar has built a confidence with people now. (still keep going up in bear market). I'd say ( good job, US FED >_<). The reason of buying Gold is only when US dollars starts to lose its confidence. However, this will not be happened now. But well, next bull market, US dollar may lose its condifence :). Depends how Asia RMB can freely trade or not.

Asia RMB is a long term investment and stable investment. US gov't really wants RMB to go up and up. So if you want stable non-risky income, buy RMB's bond is a better choice compared to US bond. (however, most US investors in the world don't realize it and still buying US bond. they are stilll keeping tricked by US gov't, coz US bond can't compete with inflation).

Dow support line is @ 7800 and a big plunge is needed to break this support line. If it's not broken next week the end of October, you can expect market will go up in Nov and Dec.

Here are some questions we need to answer at this point.

1. When is de-leveraging ended?
2. Any signals if the crisis is ended?
3. When is the end of bear market?
4. What do we need to prepare for next bull market?

1. De-leveraging is still going and is expected to continue. It's an effect of credit crunch. So you have to see when the credit crunch is ended.

2. The crisis is from subprime mortgage to credit crunch and lead to a bunch of problems.
So signals like: final bomb (credit card problem) exploded and solved, your consuming power is hugely affected. US starts to increase the interest rate because economy is stable. These are the signals you can look for when crisis is ended. However it doesn't mean bear market is ended. It just means the market is trying to recover itself. Usually this is the time for long term investors to come in and holds for maybe 1-5 years. (my guess is around mid 2009)

3. If you see US dollar depreciate again, that's the end of bear market. It will be the time for mid-term and short term investment to come in. (my guess is around Dec 2010)

4. Find the bubbles for next bull market, it can be bio-medical, alternative energy, environment saving companies.....Realize that???...These bubbles are what Buffett is buying these days, (bio-medical -> SNY, GSK), Alternative energy -> GE, chinese companies that produces battery, (I also read a news that buffett is interested in solarworld AG, environement saving companies ->BNI (less car, more railway), IR (energy-saving companies)). Also, after this financial crisis, the remaining banks will be getting stronger and stronger. That's why Buffett still has Wells fargo, Bank of America and Goldman Sach. All about market share in the future. Others like KO, YUM, MCD, are still good for investment as they have good china market. (The fact that China and India have billions of people is still existed. so these good managed US companies that have good asia exposure are good for investment)

side note: To be a professional investor, An example like Buffett is good to learn from. (but just trust all of what he says. a self-analysis is still needed)

OKAY, Sharing up to now.
However, just one last point to note, don't think solar stocks are at the bottom. Be skeptical.

sell 500 YGE @ 5.3

earn gradually , 1 time after 1 time

buy below 4.95 again
keep earn little by little to increase cash flow

add 500 YGE @ 4.95

time for them to cover the short sell
good luck to everyone...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=yge

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=jaso

buy JASO@ 6.7

500 stocks

reason:
1. rsi <30,
2. after panic sell
3. next year revenue is the same as the market cap
4. holding enough cash

some thoughts to pass the darkest moment

clear high P/E stocks: FSLR drops to bring down the whole solar market

in this sale, STP is the strongest....it's seen that STP is the king....

again...be careful of bank run in US or Europe or even in the world (Australia)

keep your deposit in big banks, e.g HSBC, Wells fargo, STD, BAC..

wait longer to buy solar stocks...
wrong decision to buy JASO @ 10.2, will consider buying JASO below 7.2

buy@ JASO 10.3

portfilio

$6000
- JASO @12.4 300shares ( Sept)
+ JASO @ 13.2 300 shares (Sept)
- $58 transaction fee
- JASO @ 10.3 300 shares (Sept 30th)

waiting for AMAT to go below 14.8 again and YGE to go below 10 again

prepare to buy YGE and AMAT

since the bailout plan fails, it's not good to start buying today.
Also since the bailout plan fails, even more banks are not gonna survive.
This is not the worst news. Stay in line and look for opportunity.

The worst news this time should be bankruns everywhere in US or even the world.
now just Fortis ans Wachovia...

Please keep your money in some good banks, such as some china bank, HSBC, STD, Wells Fargo, etc.

Portfilio still 100 % cash.

Yingli Green Energy will Supply PV Modules to Largest University Campus Solar Energy Facility in the United States

BAODING, China, September 24, 2008 – Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited (NYSE: YGE) ("Yingli Green Energy" or "the Company"), one of the world's leading vertically integrated photovoltaic ("PV") product manufacturers, today announced that it has entered into a sales contract with SunDurance Energy, LLC ("SunDurance"), which develops, designs and builds large-scale solar energy facilities for private and public entities in the United States. Pursuant to this agreement, Yingli Green Energy has agreed to supply an aggregate of 1.4 MW of PV modules to SunDurance from December 2008 to January 2009, which will be used for a solar power plant under construction on the Livingston Campus of Rutgers University. The $10 million solar farm project will be financed by Rutgers University and the Clean Energy Program of the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities.

According to Rutgers University, this project will be largest campus solar energy facility in the United States, and is expected to generate approximately 10 percent of the electrical demand for the Livingston Campus while reducing the university's carbon dioxide emissions by more than 1,200 tons per year.

"We are very pleased to be working with Yingli Green Energy on the Rutgers University project," said Al Bucknam, Chief Executive Officer of SunDurance Energy. "Yingli's products meet the demanding performance requirements of this project and the module design enables a more space-efficient layout."

"We are pleased to work with SunDurance and to be a part of Rutgers University's efforts to bring environmentally sound practices to higher education," commented Mr. Robert Petrina, the Business Development Manager of Yingli Green Energy. "I believe solar power will play an increasingly important role in the energy generation mix of the United States, and this project and our relationship with SunDurance highlights our commitment to the U.S. market."

Comment:

yge has started the USA market already. It's a big milestone.I increase the buy to $12.5. Since the tax credit lasts for 8 years. it is for sure thatSolar stock will be doubled by 10 every 3-4 years

Spain to ease proposed cut on solar subsidy cap

MADRID, Sept 23(Reuters) - Spain has decided to ease proposed dramatic cuts in agenerous subsidy scheme to solar power producers in one of the world's hottest markets, Energy Secretary Pedro Marin said on Tuesday.
Marin told reporters that the proposed limit on new solar power panels entitled to subsidies in 2009 will be 500 megawatts, which compares to an earlier draft proposal to set the cap at 300 MW.
'We have approved an additional 200 MW for ground based installations to soften the change,' Marin said.
The government's proposed cap on what has been lucrative state aid for solar energy firms would still be less than half this year's cap of1,200 MW.
Solar energy association ASIF has said that the 500 MW cap proposed will only subsidize projects already in development, but not encourage any new solar power installations in 2009.
(Reporting by Martin Roberts, writing by Sarah Morris) Keywords: SPAIN SOLAR/

link: http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslim ... /23/afx5458917.html

comment: For the solar companies who are already in Spanish market, this is the good news.
among all of them,
Related Stocks: Applied Materials Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq: ENER), First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR), Hoku Scientific, Inc. (Nasdaq: HOKU), SunPower Corporation (Nasdaq: SPWR), MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE).

Based on stock price values and a bunch of short term signals, I will add AMAT & YGE soon to my portfolio. My Desired price : AMAT-> below 14.8, YGE-> below 11.5 for 2-months goals, AMAT -> 18, YGE -> 13.8

portfilio - JASO will sell if it reaches 13.2

Reason: the balance sheet status has changed and it's difficult to predict anymore now.

US problem cannot be solved by gov't policy, i think most of the I-bank will be finished. economy recession will cause oil to drop and alternative energy market cannot expand for a while. the timing to buy will be after US election, and JASO will not be considered until more clarification with lehman deal.

JA Solar Shrs Slides Further; Lent 6.56M Shrs To Lehman

JA Solar (JASO) shares are down for a second-straight day on concerns about complications related to a stock-lending agreement with Lehman Brothers in connection with a May 2008 convertible note offering. Lehman yesterday filed Chapter 11.

This morning, the company noted that in May it raised $400 million via the convert deal; in connection with the offering, the company entered a stock lending deal with Lehman covering 6.56 million shares. In a statement, JASO said it is “unaware of the intentions of Lehman Europe” with respect to return of the shares, which were to be repaid when the convert matures in 2013. As in the case of Evergreen Solar (ESLR), the company so far has not included those shares in EPS calculations.

JA Solar said it “intends to vigorously assert its rights with respect to such shares, including, taking advantage of applicable insolvency laws that specifically protect financial market transactions similar to these.”

JA Solar also said that in connection with the convert it paid $16.2 million for a capped call transaction to reduce the dilution from the conversion of the notes. The company said it “intends to work with other investment banks to determine its best course of action to maintain the original intent of the capped call transaction.”

The company also said it holds $100 million of 3-month index-lined notes issued by Lehman and indexed to something called the ” Lehman Brothers Commodity Alpha Trading Strategies I Excess Return” index. The notes mature October 9, “with 100% principal protection.” Lehman said it is “monitoring the development of the Lehman insolvency proceedings closely,” but that the issue of the notes - Lehman Brothers Treasury Co. B.V. - is not presently the subject of insolvency proceedings.

JASO, which yesterday fell $2.66, or 20.3%, to $10.44, today is down another 35 cents, or 3.6%, to $10.09.

comment: to be posted. Right now I am still holding JASO, but I am not gonna add the position until it's clear.

Italy solar capacity seen hitting 2,500 MW in 2010

MILAN (Reuters) - Solar power installations in Italy are set to grow rapidly on the back of generous incentives to hit about 2,500 megawatts in 2010, a senior renewable energy expert said on Thursday.

Photovoltaic (PV) energy, which turns sunlight into power, got a boost in Italy last year when the government approved a set of incentives and requirements prompting energy and industrial companies to flock to the sector.

"Italy will enter the European solar troika," Gianni Silvestrini, scientific director of Italy's Kyoto Club, told Reuters on the sidelines of an energy conference.

"My evaluation of the cumulative installed capacity is 2,500 MW for 2010. It is a very high target compared to what's been done so far," Silvestrini said.

Italy's total PV installed capacity stood at 170 MW at the end of 2007.

But installations have been gathering speed quickly with 20 MW coming on stream in August alone, Silvestrini said, forecasting 600 MW of new installations in 2009 and another 1,500 MW in 2010.

"There will be a rush here as was in Spain when they have done 1,000 MW (of new installations) this year because incentives were to expire in September," he said.

Sector experts were more cautious with forecasts of Italian PV growth at an industry conference in Spain this month.

The Italian government body GSE has forecast no more than 450 MW of new solar power installed in Italy by the end of next year and saw a 1,200 MW cap on Italian subsidies probably reached in 2012.

But Silvestrini said an expected fall of solar panel prices would bring closer the so-called "grid parity" -- when the cost of solar electricity matches that of the traditional power from the grid -- and make incentives unnecessary.

"Once grid parity is achieved, incentives practically will no longer be needed. It will be even cheaper to produce solar energy than traditional. At this point there will be a market boom," Silvestrini said.

He cited industry forecasts that grid parity in Italy may be reached in 2010-2015.

Rapidly growing PV power generation demand has triggered a great number of projects to produce panels in Italy which would come on stream in the next two to three years, he added.

Spain Energy Ministry Proposal for 500MMW 2009 Cap is Positive for the Group - Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray analysts Jesse Pichel comments on solar stocks, saying the Spain Energy Ministry proposal for 500MMW 2009 cap is positive for the group. Pichel said, "While we expect final outcome by early October, we believe Spain will not be as weak as expected in '09, and that this proposal should help improve investor sentiment around Spain."

Pichel said he can confirm that the Spain Energy Ministry has sent a draft proposal (500MW cap in '09) to the State Council. He said although this proposal is in line with their March 5th note, it is a modest upside to 300MW consensus. He believes the 500MW '09 cap would be broken into 300MW for ground-mounted systems and 200MW for roof-top systems.

Pichel said the proposal still needs to be approved by the Spanish Economic Ministry which could take 3 – 4 weeks.

Related Stocks: Applied Materials Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq: ENER), First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR), Hoku Scientific, Inc. (Nasdaq: HOKU), SunPower Corporation (Nasdaq: SPWR), MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE).

source: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Spain+Energy+Ministry+Proposal+for+500MMW+2009+Cap+is+Positive+for+the+Group+-+Piper+Jaffray/3982333.html

it will be removed if what he said is not true :)

portfilio: buy 300 JASO @ 12.4

From now on, I'll show my way to invest solar stock: I'll start with $6000 dollars and I won't increase the money. See my 1 year performance

money : US dollar $6000

1. transaction
buy JASO @ 12.4 with transaction fee of 29 dollars
cost $3749.

remaining: $2351, JASO 300@ 12.4

STP - 瓦伦西亚23rd EU PVSEC 照片

source: http://bbs.solarzoom.com/viewthread.php?tid=53272&extra=page%3D1

YGE- 瓦伦西亚23rd EU PVSEC 照片

source: http://bbs.solarzoom.com/viewthread.php?tid=53270&extra=page%3D1

Solar power companies face end of Spanish subsidies

VALENCIA, Spain: Growth in solar power installations in Italy may not be enough to offset shrinking global demand, Italian industry experts say. Part of that reduced demand could come in Spain, where solar power companies face a drastic slowdown next year because the government is preparing to sharply reduce subsidies. Some companies are now pinning their hopes on the Italian market, but manufacturers and government officials in Italy are cautious over growth prospects.

Gerardo Montanino, operations director at Gestore dei Servizi Elettrici, the agency overseeing the rates paid for electricity fed into the grid, said he expected modest growth. The agency forecasts that no more than 450 megawatts of solar power will be installed in Italy by the end of next year, and Montanino told an energy conference here that a 1,200-megawatt cap on Italian subsidies would probably be reached in 2012. A megawatt, or MW, is equal to a million watts. Italian manufacturers said they faced considerable bureaucratic hurdles.

Angelo Nogara, managing director of one of them, Solkraft Italia, said many Italian solar plants had to wait a year after being built to be connected to the grid. He also cited the case of a local authority's asking for a study on the acoustic impact of a solar plant, which is silent in its operation. "I hope we can have 1,000 MW, but I am not sure because of bureaucratic problems," said Nogara, who is also international affairs officer at Assosolare, an industry group. Generous subsidies in Spain will expire this month after the subsidies encouraged the installation of 1,000 megawatts in new solar plants this year. That has made Spain the world's biggest market after Germany, where the government expects 1,350 megawatts of new solar plants to go online this year. Now the Spanish government wants no more than 300 megawatts of new plants to be eligible in 2009 for so-called feed-in tariffs under which producers are paid at fixed rates for electricity generated from renewable resources and are designed to make solar power competitive. Those tariffs will be reduced.

David Wortmann, head of renewable energy at the German government investment agency, said he was cautious about growth prospects in Germany. The country has no cap on feed-in tariffs, but they are set to slide and will depend on how much is installed. "It is adventurous to make predictions, but we could say around 1,500 MW next year," Wortmann said at the conference. That would keep Germany as the world leader but implies growth of just 150 megawatts, or not nearly enough to offset an expected drop of 700 megawatts in Spanish demand. On a brighter note, an investment banking firm, Piper Jaffray, said it expected strong growth in France in 2009 and 2010, partly because of an expected decline in the price of solar panels and partly because of subsidies introduced in 2006 making themselves felt. "'We believe France should be a key driver for solar together with Italy during 2009-2010," the firm said in a report.

SPiper Jaffray said it believed that France would add 500 megawatts of capacity in both 2009 and 2010. France has just 50 megawatts of solar power capacity now. Some solar power companies said they were still pinning hopes on a swift expansion in Italy next year, from 170 megawatts currently installed to 1,200 megawatts, the level where the government said it will cap feed-in tariffs. "That sort of growth you could almost say it's compensating entirely for the slowdown in sales into Spain," said Steve Chan, chief strategy officer at Suntech Power Holdings, a Chinese manufacturer of solar panels. Spain accounted for 40 percent of Suntech's second-quarter sales this year. Analysts estimate that Spain will account for 30 percent of sales for another solar panel maker, SunPower, which is based San Jose, California. The company's chief executive, Thomas Werner, said he was confident that sales in Italy would make up for the sharp drop in the Spanish market. "We are able to replicate our entire Spanish business in Italy, year-on-year," Werner said. "We have a presence in Italy already." Chan said he also saw opportunities in Germany, where his company had not been able to meet demand this year because of the high volume of its sales in Spain.

SunPower Plunges; CEO Sees 10%-20% ‘09 Price Drop

source:: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL352722320080903?rpc=44

SunPower (SPWR) shares are trading sharply lower after CEO Thomas Werner said he expects prices for solar panels to drop by 10%-20% next year. Werner made the comment in an interview with Reuters at a solar conference in Valencia, Spain.
That forecast is consistent with Cowen analyst Robert Stone’s prediction last week that prices next year will be down 10%-15%.
SPWR today is down $5.18, or 5.7%, to $85.96.

天威英利与DEG和FMO签订5年5000万美元的信贷协议Yingli Green Energy Subsidiary Signs Five-Year US$50 Million Credit Facility Agreement with DEG and FMO Tuesday September

Yingli Green Energy Subsidiary Signs Five-Year US$50 Million Credit Facility Agreement with DEG and FMO
Tuesday September 2, 7:31 am ET

BAODING,China--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited(NYSE: YGE - News) (“Yingli Green Energy” or the “Company”), one of theworld’s leading vertically integrated photovoltaic (“PV”) productmanufacturers, today announced that Baoding Tianwei Yingli New EnergyResources Co., Ltd (“Tianwei Yingli”), the Company’s principaloperating subsidiary, has entered into a five-year credit facilityagreement with DEG - Deutsche Investitions- undEntwicklungsgesellschaft mbH (“DEG”) and the Netherlands DevelopmentFinance Company (“FMO”).

Underthe agreement, DEG and FMO have agreed to lend Tianwei Yingli up to anaggregate of US$50 million to support Tianwei Yingli’s capacityexpansion, subject to certain conditions. The loans will be guaranteedby Yingli Green Energy and will carry an interest rate of LIBOR plus3.0%, with outstanding principal payable in eight bi-annualinstallments from March 2010 to September 2013.

“Climateprotection has been an important issue for DEG since the mid-1990s,”said Mr. Winfried Polte, Chairman of the Board of Management of DEG.“We are proud to support Yingli Green Energy as a company distinguishedby exceptional expertise and a proven track record in the solar energyindustry. In addition, Yingli Green Energy’s capacity expansion willcreate thousands of new jobs in China thereby contributing to economicgrowth in this rapidly developing economy.”

“FMO is stronglycommitted to renewable energy projects,” said Mr. Arthur Arnold, ChiefExecutive Officer of FMO. “Energy is central to economic and socialdevelopment and essential to fighting poverty in emerging markets.Therefore we are pleased to contribute to the rapid growth of the solarenergy market worldwide by financing Yingli Green Energy’s expansion ofproduction capacity in China.”

“We are pleased to have beenselected to receive financing from DEG and FMO, two well-knownfinancial institutions that specialize in providing long term financingto support socially and environmentally friendly companies indeveloping countries,” commented Mr. Zongwei Li, Chief FinancialOfficer of Yingli Green Energy. “The strong commitment of DEG and FMOto our growth strategy not only strengthens our ability to expand ourvertically integrated manufacturing capacity, but also enhances ourdebt structure by enabling us to shift to longer term indebtedness.

“Webelieve this financing demonstrates DEG and FMO’s confidence in ourbusiness strengths and leadership position, as well as recognizes ourstatus as a good corporate citizen. As a leading green energy company,we not only focus on developing our own business to provide returns toour shareholders, but also aim to make lasting contributions to societyand the environment through job creation, appropriate workingconditions and valuable technical training, as well as adherence tointernationally accepted environmental protection standards andresearch and development efforts to create innovative energy efficientmanufacturing processes.”

About DEG

DEG, a member of theKfW Bankengruppe (KfW Banking Group), finances investments in companiesin developing and transition countries. As one of Europe’s largestdevelopment finance institutions, it promotes private businessstructures that contribute to sustainable economic growth and improvedliving conditions.

About FMO

FMO is the internationaldevelopment bank of the Netherlands and one of the largest bilateraldevelopment banks worldwide with an investment portfolio ofapproximately


comments: good news for the financial side of YGE...it should be able to make the cash flow look better ( more cash to pay the short term borrowings)

第十届中国太阳能光伏会议暨展览会即将开幕

source : http://www.newenergy.org.cn/html/0088/8280820685.html
由中国可再生能源学会、江苏省常州市人民政府、中国可再生能源学会光伏专委会共同主办，常州天合光能有限公司和浙江大学承办，上海诺盖斯展览策划有限公司承展的第十届中国太阳能光伏会议暨展览会(ChinasolarPV2008)将于2008年9月19--22日在常州体育会展中心举行。目前，国内外展商参展报名踊跃，展位销售已告罄。

中国太阳能光伏会议暨展览会自创办以来，展出规模逐届增大，本届展览会将在常州体育会展中心1,2,3,4,5号展馆展出，面积近二万平方米，参展商约三百家六百多个展位，他们来自中国、美国、瑞士、德国、韩国、法国、波兰、比利时、挪威、英国、日本以及中国香港、台湾等13个国家和地区，其中有常州天合光能、无锡尚德太阳能、南京中电光伏、天威英利、阿特斯光伏、日本京瓷太阳能、日本三洋太阳能、宁波太阳能、亚系自动化新加坡、德国威格玛、常州亿晶光电、绍兴精工机电、天津市津能电池、四川永祥多晶硅、中国电子科技集团公司、江苏林洋新能源、东莞南玻太阳能等。参展商涉及设备、材料等行业。

本届展会，国内企业报名参展也很踊跃，展会主办方邀请了中华新能源商会、国家科技部、能源局、西班牙太阳能协会、欧洲光伏工业协会、韩可再生能源协会、德国太阳能协会作为展览会协办组织招商单位，组织本行业厂商参展。

截止目前，共有三百多家企业报名参展，净面积1。2万平方米。主要展品范围为太阳能光伏生产设备、硅棒硅锭生产设备、硅片生产设备、电池生产设备、电池板/组件生产设备、薄膜电池生产设备、 光伏电池、光伏相关零部件、 光伏原材料、光伏产品、光伏工程及系统等。

展会期间，还将组织本届会议分为报告会和论坛两大部分，报告会分别有太阳能光伏产业、技术和市场发展报告与七场分会报告，以及三大论坛：光伏产业论坛；薄膜电池论坛；硅材料论坛。会议期间还将评选“中国天合光伏产品质量贡献奖”、“中国太阳能光伏尚德奖”等多个奖项。论坛和研讨会的举行，将为参展各方提供一个沟通、交流，相互学习，促进贸易发展的良好平台。详情登陆：http://www.chinasolarpv.com

太阳能产业需求仰赖政策补助

Source : bbs.solarzoom.com

对抗全球暖化、减缓温室效应，节能减碳趋势下，太阳能产业发展正火，吸引更多新加入者投入，产业也面临更多挑战，多晶硅料源是问题，转换效率是问题，看来欣欣向荣的太阳能装置市场也充满变数，尽管太阳能发电朝向商业化发展，但在现阶段太阳能发电价格仍高于一般用电的同时，仍需要仰赖各国政府推广性的支持或补助政策，投资脚步得小心控管，也得保有对政策变动的弹性。

太阳能产业蓬勃发展，业者都十分乐观看待，并大幅扩充产能，以目前全球主要的几家太阳能电池制造商来看，龙头厂的德国 Q-Cells预计到2009年产能将超越1000MW，第2大的日本Sharp预计2009年薄膜太阳能电池厂加入量产行列后，由现在的700MW，大幅提高到2010年的2GW，而无锡尚德的产能也同样计划2010年将2000MW，按照市场每年30-40%的扩张速度，预估到2010年全球太阳能发电系统累积总产能将达25GW。

先不说料源供给问题，从市场的实际需求来看，根据花旗环球证券针对各国太阳能的计划装置量统计结果，今年全球太阳能预定装置量为4670MW，明年达 6833MW，2010年则达9400MW，2009年整体装置量较今年成长46%；然而，根据目前全球各大厂设定的产能和产出预估，今年还是供不应求的 3390MW，到了2009年却高度扩张了 79%，总量将达6075MW，而这还不包括目前正在竞相投入的许多新成员。

最令人担心的是，德国和西班牙政府正打算削减补助和装置量，假设删除德国和西班牙这2大太阳能市场，其他市场的安装量必须由1900MW大幅扩充200%，提高到5700MW，换句话说，意大利、韩国和日本等新市场不只要能弥补西班牙装置量的减少，还必须再增加3800MW，等同近今年西班牙市场规模(950MW)4倍的装置量。

正如本月太阳能专业网站Solarbuzz提到的，太阳能是全球性的市场，任何地区的政策改变都会影响到其他地区，政策成为相当重要的变数，因此西班牙政府在9月补助到期后，政策的变动备受瞩目。

回过头来看，近期还是有不少好消息，印度和澳洲2个新市场令人振奋，美国前总统克林顿7月宣布投资50亿美元，在印度打造全球最大的太阳能电厂，发电量高达5000MW；而德国ALTERGIE公司则与叙利亚签约，将在叙利亚新建太阳能电厂，预计明年完工，运行初期的发电量预估100MW，总电量将达10GW，这些都提供了新的装置量需求。

在澳大利亚， WorleyParsons公司也正展开一项大型太阳能电厂的计划，预定在2020年前于澳洲兴建34座太阳能电厂，首座电厂预定3年内完工，所衍生的太阳能系统装置需求预期相当可观。

太阳能业者们正关注这些变动，也不断的在努力成为新市场的先行者，茂迪在印度兴建电厂消息传出前，早已藉由与当地模组厂的策略联盟，打入印度市场，昱晶、新日光也陆续打入印度的太阳能模组通路。未来市场变化捉摸难定，但太阳能产业新加入者不断的投入，显示出对市场发展的乐观性，台湾太阳能业者就指出，尽管西班牙政府的补助价格将下滑，但预期在供给大幅增加下，电量的快速下滑将贴近一般发电成本，势必也将拉动消费者的装置需求，对太阳能发展可以说是长多，后续值得观察和追踪。

全球主要太阳能电池厂产出计划表一览
公司名称 2008年产出(MW) 2009年产出(MW) 增加幅度
Q-Cells 585 1000 71%
尚德 550 900 64%
茂迪 280 400 43%
昱晶 220 500 127%
益通 150 290 93%
Trina 210 400 90%
Sharp 510 835 64%
China Sunergy 150 290 93%
英利 260 460 77%
JA Solar 345 700 103%
新日光 130 300 131%
合计 3390 6075 79%

资料来源：花旗环球证券报告．依各公司统计
全球市场太阳能装置需求推估一览
需求量(MW) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2009YoY
德国 1150 1400 1800 2300 2750 28%
西班牙 90 280 950 350 700 -63%
美国 150 250 450 800 1700 78%
南韩 5 30 90 383 450 326%
意大利 5 35 250 850 950 240%
其他欧盟国 30 120 250 450 700 80%
日本 320 350 370 600 700 62%
中国 20 40 60 150 250 150%
其他合计 150 300 450 950 1200 111%
总装置量 1920 2805 4670 6833 9400 46%


comment: pretty interesting article to show demand and supply...
The main key here is the opening of US market and Italy market
whichever Solar company can get into to these two market in 2008-2010 first, they are king.

赛维LDK2.81亿美元扩建三项目

本报南昌讯 记者郑荣林报道：记者1日获悉，江西省发改委近日相继批准了江西赛维LDK三个太阳能多晶硅项目，总投资超过2.81亿美元。赛维LDK有关人士告诉记者，这三个扩建项目都是预计在明年底前完成，以满足公司扩大产能的需要。
　　江西赛维LDK新获批的三个项目分别是，赛维LDK太阳能高科技公司扩建年产100兆瓦多晶硅片项目，总投资9744万美元；赛维LDK太阳能多晶硅公司扩建年产1000吨高纯度多晶硅材料，项目投资总额9060万美元；赛维LDK光伏硅科技有限公司扩建年产1000吨高纯多晶硅材料项目，项目投资总额9300万美元。根据该公司提供了2009年初步的财务预测，收入将达到28亿美元至30亿美元。

http://jiangxi.jxnews.com.cn/system/2008/09/02/002833132.shtml

comment: it's hard to see whether these are good or not. Have to see their management in the future. However, more investment = more lending or debt. I wonder how LDK has that sufficient money to keep investing =.= ..2 billion !!! almost 1/3 of the market cap of LDK...

英利新能源和Payom Solar AG 签订2MW太阳能组件销售合同

Merkendorf, 1 September 2008 - Payom Solar AG announces conclusion of additional purchase contract containing the delivery of crystalline solar modules at a total operating performance of 2.0 megawatt with Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer. Deliveries should be carried out at the end of that quarter. Business transaction is carried out in Euro, so that the company does not have any exchange rate risk. Size of account is at around EUR 6 million for that extraordinary contingent. “By that contract we are able to provide still this year high-quality modules additionally to our existing capacities to our customers. Thereby we are on the one hand able to do justice to the still strong demand and on the other hand we can further push our growth within this year.” CEO Jörg Truelsen said.



About Payom Solar AG: Payom Solar AG is a manufacturer independent system provider of solar plants. The company plans, erects and sells photovoltaic systems both in in-roof-segments and on-roof segments from house installation to industrial large plants and delivers them turnkey to institutional as well as private investors and operators.

2MW大概价值6百万欧元，由于用的是欧元作为交易货币，所以汇兑方面的风险会比较小，供货时间大概在本季度结束。看来YGE一切照常进行，苗在Q2 CC上已经表态说不少09年销售合同会在第4季度陆续签订。现在第三季度就要过去了，相信未来3个月YGE会有更多的销售合同公布。另外从YGE最近几个销售合同看，基本上都是小于10MW的合同，个人认为公司经营还是稳字当先，先从小的来，积少成多，单个合同不一定要很多，但是累计起来就不得了了。同时回顾CC上苗的表态以及公司各项指标，没有太大惊喜，但是公司发展还是稳步提高

Comment: 2MW is small contract, but we should see more of this kind of contracts soon. the strategy of YGE is good as it's trying to get more customers. The broad customer base will help definitely when their production increases starting from 2009.

Analysis of solar stocks in 2nd quarter 2008

	company	revenue	COGS	netincome	eps (diluted)
3month	STP	480179	364382	65207	0.42
6month end	FSLR	463956	214932	116290	1.42
3month	LDK	441665	329372	149534	1.29
6month end	SPWR	656452	510102	41365	0.49
3month	JASO	163583	129196	22520	0.14
3month	YGE	289687	215075	30206	0.23
6month end	CSIQ	383820	322509	29542	1.01
3month	TSL	204169	156796	17101	0.68
3month	SOLF	197139	170086	11385	0.23
3month	CSUN	111637	100018	3057	0.08

	company	cash	short term borrowing	current asset	current liability	inventory	current flow	quick ratio	quick cash ratio
3month	STP	605180	556071	1574957	746155	182574	2.11	1.87	1.09
6month end	FSLR	511244	65043	838573	279249	106902	3.00	2.62	7.86
3month	LDK	83742	375634	1340785	864099	656202	1.55	0.79	0.22
6month end	SPWR	189542	138859	836210	401711	200268	2.08	1.58	1.36
3month	JASO	519835	10874	770389	31439	23078	24.50	23.77	47.81
3month	YGE	118953	236519	798315	311987	181729	2.56	1.98	0.50
6month end	CSIQ	65138	92727	363863	170690	90440	2.13	1.60	0.70
3month	TSL	59529	351280	471097	438977	118107	1.07	0.80	0.17
3month	SOLF	81315	156602	541396	218709	120042	2.48	1.93	0.52
3month	CSUN	124066	123194	260045	145950	41858	1.78	1.49	1.01

	company	total libability	total shareequity	debt to equity
3month	STP	1,911,207	1,077,013	1.77
6month end	FSLR	424529	1250601	0.34
3month	LDK	1730215	697636	2.48
6month end	SPWR	859785	968178	0.89
3month	JASO	388724	689993	0.56
3month	YGE	503714	652860	0.77
6month end	CSIQ	232582	251664	0.92
3month	TSL	464766	399974	1.16
3month	SOLF	447496	302062	1.48
3month	CSUN	146958	199148	0.74

quick cash ratio = cash/short term borrowing.

Here is the result

Something to notice:
1. STP
It is the biggest company among all. The revenue is the largest. current ratio, quick ratio, quick cash ratio are very stable. The high debt to equty ratio shows that STP is profit driven and tries to increase its production significantly. It's very common in solar industry. hopefully this ratio can go down when STP become more mature.

2. FSLR
thin-film company. Thus the revenue is not as high as STP. However, clearly the company manage their cash flow very well. The low debt to equity ratio even show they can drive their production significantly. No wonder the P/E can stay that high.

3. LDK
a company that generate huge profit. they are testing their limit to drive up production. quick cash ratio is very low and debt to equity ratio is very high. However, their inventory is the highest compared to others. hopefully the financial management will be good in the near future. (However, whether the inventory is true or not, that's another question.)

4. SPWR
very diversified company. engaged in power plant, solar module, etc. very stable company. It's a company that chinese solar company should learn from. there's reason why it can have such high P/E compared to chinese solar company.

5. JASO
mono-crystalline solar cell company. After the issue of convertible bond, the financial side of the companies grow a lot better. However, those ratio will change significantly after the next earning release. Hopefully the company can be more diversified in the future. Moreover, hope they can use the money to increase the inventory...It's very low compared to others.

6. YGE
energetic company. increase earning 100 % every year. It's a very trustworthy company since those number looks very real to me. Hope they can reduce the short-term borrowing in the future. It's a company that tries to growlike SPWR in the future. (From 2billion to 8 billion, not a bad investment :) )

7. CSIQ
fast-growing company. a company that grow out of my expectation. It's a black horse.

8. TSL
From the ratio, balance sheet, etc, it looks like it will bankrupt in two years...=.=. They have to issue lots of covertible debt in order to run the company. I will avoid buying this company in my opinion.

9. SOLF
a so-so company. if you dun like YGE or JASO, u may wanna invest this company.

10. CSUN
increase the net profit margin is the first thing the company needs to do.

based on these, i rank the company strength as below.
1. FSLR, SPWR, STP, JASO, YGE, CSIQ, SOLF, LDK, CSUN (TSL is out of the ranking)

These comments are for long term investors.

For short term, you have to see the stock price and the trend also.

Enjoy!!

Motech Industries Inc. Reports Second Quarter Results

Taipei, Taiwan, August 25, 2008 – Motech Industries Inc. (TWO: 6244) (“Motech”, “We”, or the “Company”), one of the world’s leading producers of photovoltaic (PV) cells, today reported unconsolidated net revenues1 of NT$ 6,096 million for the second quarter of 2008 (2Q08), up 66% year-over-year and 24% sequentially. Net income for the quarter was NT$ 608 million, up 126% from NT$ 269 million in 1Q08 and 17% from NT$ 521 million in 2Q07 respectively. Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was NT$2.44(note 1), compared to NT$ 2.32(note 2) for 2Q07 and NT$ 1.08(note 1) for 1Q08.

For the six months ended June 30, 2008 (1H08), the Company reported unconsolidated net revenues of NT$ 10,998 million, up 57% from NT$ 6,984 million for the same period last year. On a non-consolidated basis, gross profit and operating profit were NT$ 1,691 million and NT$ 1,304 million, up 14% and 3% from the same period of 2007 respectively. Net income for 1H08 was NT$ 877 million, compared with a net income of NT$ 1,288 million for the same period of 2007. Earnings per share was NT$ 3.52(note 1), compared to NT$ 5.72(note 2) for the same period of 2007.

On a consolidated basis, the Company reported net revenues of NT$ 11,005 million for 1H08, up 57% from NT$ 7,015 million for the same period of 2007. Consolidated gross profit and operating profit were NT$ 1,696 million and NT$ 1,271 million, up 13% and 1% from the same period of 2007 respectively.

link: http://www.corpasia.net/taiwan/6244/irwebsite/download.php?filename=../../6244/financial/6/EN/PR_2Q08_Results_E.pdf

IR presentation link: http://www.corpasia.net/taiwan/6244/irwebsite/download.php?filename=../../6244/events/12/EN/IR_Presentation_080417.pdf

Solar Stocks Comparison Table (8/22/2008)

source from http://cnanalyst.com

Solar Stocks Comparison Table (8/22/2008)

Recent Research on 20 Solar Stocks

Solar Stocks Comparison Table (in $millions except per share numbers)

Company (Ticker)	Mkt	Price	Daily	YTD	Rev	Rev	Chg	EPS	EPS	Chg	P/E	P/E	Net
	Cap		Chg	Chg	08E	09E	%	08E	09E	%	08E	09E	Margin
First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR)	22244	282.82	1.3%	6%	1228	2200	79%	3.71	6.97	88%	76	41	29%
MEMC (NYSE:WFR)	11501	50.31	3.1%	-43%	2298	2852	24%	4.11	5.06	23%	12	10	32%
Suntech Power (NYSE:STP)	7193	46.75	4.6%	-43%	2154	3197	48%	1.67	2.61	57%	28	18	13%
LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK)	4764	45.82	-1.3%	-3%	1533	2323	52%	2.48	4.39	77%	18	10	30%
SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR)	3850	96.59	2.3%	-26%	1421	2053	44%	2.32	3.64	57%	42	27	3%
Energy Conv. (NASDAQ:ENER)	3199	79.38	3.1%	136%	251	443	77%	0.01	1.48	N/M	N/M	54	-23%
JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO)	2693	17.92	0.4%	-23%	1046	1897	81%	0.99	1.64	65%	18	11	19%
Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE)	2267	17.86	16.0%	-54%	1105	1737	57%	1.00	1.63	62%	18	11	13%
ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE:SOL)	2157	18.94	1.9%	46%	667	1172	76%	1.37	2.35	71%	14	8	16%
Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ:ESLR)	1174	9.70	1.7%	-44%	114	418	266%	-0.25	0.45	N/M	N/M	22	-26%
Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ)	875	31.88	0.8%	13%	962	1731	80%	2.70	3.76	39%	12	8	-6%
Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL)	842	33.17	-0.2%	-38%	843	1289	53%	3.34	4.42	32%	10	7	10%
Solarfun Power (NASDAQ:SOLF)	948	19.75	6.2%	-40%	751	994	32%	0.92	1.17	26%	21	17	7%
China Sunergy (NASDAQ:CSUN)	464	11.72	18.0%	-29%	410	594	45%	0.16	0.60	268%	72	N/M	3%
Akeena Solar (NASDAQ:AKNS)	120	4.22	-0.5%	-47%	41	56	36%	-0.63	-0.49	N/M	N/M	N/M	-29%
DayStar Tech. (NASDAQ:DSTI)	108	3.34	0.3%	-47%	0	13	N/M	-0.77	-0.82	N/M	N/M	N/M	N/A
BTU Int'l (NASDAQ:BTUI)	96	10.31	-2.7%	-23%	77	97	26%	0.13	0.57	338%	79	18	4%
Ascent Solar (NASDAQ:ASTI)	106	9.06	0.4%	-64%	2	5	160%	-0.65	-0.61	N/M	N/M	N/M	-770%
Spire Corporation (NASDAQ:SPIR)	84	10.08	3.9%	-57%	78	129	65%	0.02	0.87	N/M	576	12	-14%
Hoku Scientific (NASDAQ:HOKU)	96	5.68	4.6%	-50%	17	104	503%	-0.19	0.21	N/M	N/M	27	-139%