Solar road (Road to solar stock investment): August 2008

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Analysis of solar stocks in 2nd quarter 2008

	company	revenue	COGS	netincome	eps (diluted)
3month	STP	480179	364382	65207	0.42
6month end	FSLR	463956	214932	116290	1.42
3month	LDK	441665	329372	149534	1.29
6month end	SPWR	656452	510102	41365	0.49
3month	JASO	163583	129196	22520	0.14
3month	YGE	289687	215075	30206	0.23
6month end	CSIQ	383820	322509	29542	1.01
3month	TSL	204169	156796	17101	0.68
3month	SOLF	197139	170086	11385	0.23
3month	CSUN	111637	100018	3057	0.08

	company	cash	short term borrowing	current asset	current liability	inventory	current flow	quick ratio	quick cash ratio
3month	STP	605180	556071	1574957	746155	182574	2.11	1.87	1.09
6month end	FSLR	511244	65043	838573	279249	106902	3.00	2.62	7.86
3month	LDK	83742	375634	1340785	864099	656202	1.55	0.79	0.22
6month end	SPWR	189542	138859	836210	401711	200268	2.08	1.58	1.36
3month	JASO	519835	10874	770389	31439	23078	24.50	23.77	47.81
3month	YGE	118953	236519	798315	311987	181729	2.56	1.98	0.50
6month end	CSIQ	65138	92727	363863	170690	90440	2.13	1.60	0.70
3month	TSL	59529	351280	471097	438977	118107	1.07	0.80	0.17
3month	SOLF	81315	156602	541396	218709	120042	2.48	1.93	0.52
3month	CSUN	124066	123194	260045	145950	41858	1.78	1.49	1.01

	company	total libability	total shareequity	debt to equity
3month	STP	1,911,207	1,077,013	1.77
6month end	FSLR	424529	1250601	0.34
3month	LDK	1730215	697636	2.48
6month end	SPWR	859785	968178	0.89
3month	JASO	388724	689993	0.56
3month	YGE	503714	652860	0.77
6month end	CSIQ	232582	251664	0.92
3month	TSL	464766	399974	1.16
3month	SOLF	447496	302062	1.48
3month	CSUN	146958	199148	0.74

quick cash ratio = cash/short term borrowing.

Here is the result

Something to notice:
1. STP
It is the biggest company among all. The revenue is the largest. current ratio, quick ratio, quick cash ratio are very stable. The high debt to equty ratio shows that STP is profit driven and tries to increase its production significantly. It's very common in solar industry. hopefully this ratio can go down when STP become more mature.

2. FSLR
thin-film company. Thus the revenue is not as high as STP. However, clearly the company manage their cash flow very well. The low debt to equity ratio even show they can drive their production significantly. No wonder the P/E can stay that high.

3. LDK
a company that generate huge profit. they are testing their limit to drive up production. quick cash ratio is very low and debt to equity ratio is very high. However, their inventory is the highest compared to others. hopefully the financial management will be good in the near future. (However, whether the inventory is true or not, that's another question.)

4. SPWR
very diversified company. engaged in power plant, solar module, etc. very stable company. It's a company that chinese solar company should learn from. there's reason why it can have such high P/E compared to chinese solar company.

5. JASO
mono-crystalline solar cell company. After the issue of convertible bond, the financial side of the companies grow a lot better. However, those ratio will change significantly after the next earning release. Hopefully the company can be more diversified in the future. Moreover, hope they can use the money to increase the inventory...It's very low compared to others.

6. YGE
energetic company. increase earning 100 % every year. It's a very trustworthy company since those number looks very real to me. Hope they can reduce the short-term borrowing in the future. It's a company that tries to growlike SPWR in the future. (From 2billion to 8 billion, not a bad investment :) )

7. CSIQ
fast-growing company. a company that grow out of my expectation. It's a black horse.

8. TSL
From the ratio, balance sheet, etc, it looks like it will bankrupt in two years...=.=. They have to issue lots of covertible debt in order to run the company. I will avoid buying this company in my opinion.

9. SOLF
a so-so company. if you dun like YGE or JASO, u may wanna invest this company.

10. CSUN
increase the net profit margin is the first thing the company needs to do.

based on these, i rank the company strength as below.
1. FSLR, SPWR, STP, JASO, YGE, CSIQ, SOLF, LDK, CSUN (TSL is out of the ranking)

These comments are for long term investors.

For short term, you have to see the stock price and the trend also.

Enjoy!!

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Motech Industries Inc. Reports Second Quarter Results

Taipei, Taiwan, August 25, 2008 – Motech Industries Inc. (TWO: 6244) (“Motech”, “We”, or the “Company”), one of the world’s leading producers of photovoltaic (PV) cells, today reported unconsolidated net revenues1 of NT$ 6,096 million for the second quarter of 2008 (2Q08), up 66% year-over-year and 24% sequentially. Net income for the quarter was NT$ 608 million, up 126% from NT$ 269 million in 1Q08 and 17% from NT$ 521 million in 2Q07 respectively. Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was NT$2.44(note 1), compared to NT$ 2.32(note 2) for 2Q07 and NT$ 1.08(note 1) for 1Q08.

For the six months ended June 30, 2008 (1H08), the Company reported unconsolidated net revenues of NT$ 10,998 million, up 57% from NT$ 6,984 million for the same period last year. On a non-consolidated basis, gross profit and operating profit were NT$ 1,691 million and NT$ 1,304 million, up 14% and 3% from the same period of 2007 respectively. Net income for 1H08 was NT$ 877 million, compared with a net income of NT$ 1,288 million for the same period of 2007. Earnings per share was NT$ 3.52(note 1), compared to NT$ 5.72(note 2) for the same period of 2007.

On a consolidated basis, the Company reported net revenues of NT$ 11,005 million for 1H08, up 57% from NT$ 7,015 million for the same period of 2007. Consolidated gross profit and operating profit were NT$ 1,696 million and NT$ 1,271 million, up 13% and 1% from the same period of 2007 respectively.

link: http://www.corpasia.net/taiwan/6244/irwebsite/download.php?filename=../../6244/financial/6/EN/PR_2Q08_Results_E.pdf

IR presentation link: http://www.corpasia.net/taiwan/6244/irwebsite/download.php?filename=../../6244/events/12/EN/IR_Presentation_080417.pdf

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Solar Stocks Comparison Table (8/22/2008)

source from http://cnanalyst.com

Solar Stocks Comparison Table (8/22/2008)

Recent Research on 20 Solar Stocks

Solar Stocks Comparison Table (in $millions except per share numbers)

Company (Ticker)	Mkt	Price	Daily	YTD	Rev	Rev	Chg	EPS	EPS	Chg	P/E	P/E	Net
	Cap		Chg	Chg	08E	09E	%	08E	09E	%	08E	09E	Margin
First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR)	22244	282.82	1.3%	6%	1228	2200	79%	3.71	6.97	88%	76	41	29%
MEMC (NYSE:WFR)	11501	50.31	3.1%	-43%	2298	2852	24%	4.11	5.06	23%	12	10	32%
Suntech Power (NYSE:STP)	7193	46.75	4.6%	-43%	2154	3197	48%	1.67	2.61	57%	28	18	13%
LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK)	4764	45.82	-1.3%	-3%	1533	2323	52%	2.48	4.39	77%	18	10	30%
SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR)	3850	96.59	2.3%	-26%	1421	2053	44%	2.32	3.64	57%	42	27	3%
Energy Conv. (NASDAQ:ENER)	3199	79.38	3.1%	136%	251	443	77%	0.01	1.48	N/M	N/M	54	-23%
JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO)	2693	17.92	0.4%	-23%	1046	1897	81%	0.99	1.64	65%	18	11	19%
Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE)	2267	17.86	16.0%	-54%	1105	1737	57%	1.00	1.63	62%	18	11	13%
ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE:SOL)	2157	18.94	1.9%	46%	667	1172	76%	1.37	2.35	71%	14	8	16%
Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ:ESLR)	1174	9.70	1.7%	-44%	114	418	266%	-0.25	0.45	N/M	N/M	22	-26%
Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ)	875	31.88	0.8%	13%	962	1731	80%	2.70	3.76	39%	12	8	-6%
Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL)	842	33.17	-0.2%	-38%	843	1289	53%	3.34	4.42	32%	10	7	10%
Solarfun Power (NASDAQ:SOLF)	948	19.75	6.2%	-40%	751	994	32%	0.92	1.17	26%	21	17	7%
China Sunergy (NASDAQ:CSUN)	464	11.72	18.0%	-29%	410	594	45%	0.16	0.60	268%	72	N/M	3%
Akeena Solar (NASDAQ:AKNS)	120	4.22	-0.5%	-47%	41	56	36%	-0.63	-0.49	N/M	N/M	N/M	-29%
DayStar Tech. (NASDAQ:DSTI)	108	3.34	0.3%	-47%	0	13	N/M	-0.77	-0.82	N/M	N/M	N/M	N/A
BTU Int'l (NASDAQ:BTUI)	96	10.31	-2.7%	-23%	77	97	26%	0.13	0.57	338%	79	18	4%
Ascent Solar (NASDAQ:ASTI)	106	9.06	0.4%	-64%	2	5	160%	-0.65	-0.61	N/M	N/M	N/M	-770%
Spire Corporation (NASDAQ:SPIR)	84	10.08	3.9%	-57%	78	129	65%	0.02	0.87	N/M	576	12	-14%
Hoku Scientific (NASDAQ:HOKU)	96	5.68	4.6%	-50%	17	104	503%	-0.19	0.21	N/M	N/M	27	-139%