Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Analysis of solar stocks in 2nd quarter 2008


company revenue COGS netincome eps (diluted)
3month STP 480179 364382 65207 0.42
6month end FSLR 463956 214932 116290 1.42
3month LDK 441665 329372 149534 1.29
6month end SPWR 656452 510102 41365 0.49
3month JASO 163583 129196 22520 0.14
3month YGE 289687 215075 30206 0.23
6month end CSIQ 383820 322509 29542 1.01
3month TSL 204169 156796 17101 0.68
3month SOLF 197139 170086 11385 0.23
3month CSUN 111637 100018 3057 0.08


company cash short term borrowing current asset current liability inventory current flow quick ratio quick cash ratio
3month STP 605180 556071 1574957 746155 182574 2.11 1.87 1.09
6month end FSLR 511244 65043 838573 279249 106902 3.00 2.62 7.86
3month LDK 83742 375634 1340785 864099 656202 1.55 0.79 0.22
6month end SPWR 189542 138859 836210 401711 200268 2.08 1.58 1.36
3month JASO 519835 10874 770389 31439 23078 24.50 23.77 47.81
3month YGE 118953 236519 798315 311987 181729 2.56 1.98 0.50
6month end CSIQ 65138 92727 363863 170690 90440 2.13 1.60 0.70
3month TSL 59529 351280 471097 438977 118107 1.07 0.80 0.17
3month SOLF 81315 156602 541396 218709 120042 2.48 1.93 0.52
3month CSUN 124066 123194 260045 145950 41858 1.78 1.49 1.01

company total libability total shareequity debt to equity
3month STP 1,911,207 1,077,013 1.77
6month end FSLR 424529 1250601 0.34
3month LDK 1730215 697636 2.48
6month end SPWR 859785 968178 0.89
3month JASO 388724 689993 0.56
3month YGE 503714 652860 0.77
6month end CSIQ 232582 251664 0.92
3month TSL 464766 399974 1.16
3month SOLF 447496 302062 1.48
3month CSUN 146958 199148 0.74

quick cash ratio = cash/short term borrowing.

Here is the result

Something to notice:
1. STP
It is the biggest company among all. The revenue is the largest. current ratio, quick ratio, quick cash ratio are very stable. The high debt to equty ratio shows that STP is profit driven and tries to increase its production significantly. It's very common in solar industry. hopefully this ratio can go down when STP become more mature.

2. FSLR
thin-film company. Thus the revenue is not as high as STP. However, clearly the company manage their cash flow very well. The low debt to equity ratio even show they can drive their production significantly. No wonder the P/E can stay that high.

3. LDK
a company that generate huge profit. they are testing their limit to drive up production. quick cash ratio is very low and debt to equity ratio is very high. However, their inventory is the highest compared to others. hopefully the financial management will be good in the near future. (However, whether the inventory is true or not, that's another question.)

4. SPWR
very diversified company. engaged in power plant, solar module, etc. very stable company. It's a company that chinese solar company should learn from. there's reason why it can have such high P/E compared to chinese solar company.

5. JASO
mono-crystalline solar cell company. After the issue of convertible bond, the financial side of the companies grow a lot better. However, those ratio will change significantly after the next earning release. Hopefully the company can be more diversified in the future. Moreover, hope they can use the money to increase the inventory...It's very low compared to others.

6. YGE
energetic company. increase earning 100 % every year. It's a very trustworthy company since those number looks very real to me. Hope they can reduce the short-term borrowing in the future. It's a company that tries to growlike SPWR in the future. (From 2billion to 8 billion, not a bad investment :) )

7. CSIQ
fast-growing company. a company that grow out of my expectation. It's a black horse.

8. TSL
From the ratio, balance sheet, etc, it looks like it will bankrupt in two years...=.=. They have to issue lots of covertible debt in order to run the company. I will avoid buying this company in my opinion.

9. SOLF
a so-so company. if you dun like YGE or JASO, u may wanna invest this company.

10. CSUN
increase the net profit margin is the first thing the company needs to do.

based on these, i rank the company strength as below.
1. FSLR, SPWR, STP, JASO, YGE, CSIQ, SOLF, LDK, CSUN (TSL is out of the ranking)

These comments are for long term investors.

For short term, you have to see the stock price and the trend also.

Enjoy!!

3 comments:

Unknown said...

Haha... nice. No wonder you spent 3 hours to analyze the numbers & posting it. The concept of quick cash ratio is interesting. Good that you can interpret the number from a different angles hehe.

Anonymous said...

You tabulate good numerical data. But fudamentals indicate that STP is the best for long term hold among the solar stocks you listed.

wine wine said...

Thank you for your appreciation.
I also agree STP is one of the best for long term hold.

I hope STP can release good news on its thin film, BIPV and "pluto" in order to stimulate the stock price and the company's value in the near future.

lookery